Now, I know this title may be hard to take after waking up to last night's disaster but bear with me. For several reasons, last night may have been the best thing that could have happened to us.
I. Last night was a wake up call:
If Democrats want to win in the future they will have to resort to Democratic principles. Leaving core constituencies hung out to dry has consequences. Some of them may not be as enthusiastic about having your backs. Key examples: the Latino and LBGT constituencies. A very bitter result of neglecting immigration reform is Republicans putting Hispanic Governors on the map in two key states: New Mexico and Nevada (even if Gov. elect Sandoval is not all that crazy about being reminded of his heritage). It puts the Democratic party to shame that the first Hispanic female Governor is a Republican.
II. Last night made Obama stronger: LOL? Even ROFLMAO? Hope you've recovered. Here's why that is at least possible: Obama is now forced to reconsider a) his political strategy, b) his messaging, c) his personnel. Clearly, policy now mostly hinges on a divided congress. It will be interesting to see if the likes of Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson will keep their outsized influence and if we will still hear constantly about the magic 60 votes. Policy wise, the next two years will not bring us any big projects like health care and stimulus that came at a heavy cost and even though they were done half-assed. Would last nights losses really have been worse if the stimulus would have been a couple hundred billion higher or if we would have gotten a better health care reform package? I doubt it. We're already rid of Rahm Emanuel and it's now possible to restructure the West Wing and bring in new people. People who know what they're doing. Messaging is a huge part of this. Rebuking the health care nuts in the summer of 2009 would have saved us from a lot of anguish last night. President Obama hopefully learned his lesson that his role is not solely ceremonial. He has to fight and that means going up against people whose sole aim is to destroy your presidency and everything that it stands for. One can only hope that Obama changes. If he acts like he did during the first two years of his Presidency I don't have much hope for 2012.
III: Last night was the beginning of the end of the Tea Party and/or the Republican Party:
Imagine last night turn out with Democrats barely holding the House last night. It would have still been a huge success for Republicans and the Tea Party because they would've taken out 30+ Democrats. In turn, we would have not only had to deal with a stronger Republican caucus but also with intense infighting and continuous gridlock. After witnessing the last two years you just know who would have gotten the news media's blame for that: the Democrats. Essentially, last nights win takes away the Republicans' and the Tea Party's number one tool: blaming the Democrats for all wrongs without giving them total control of Congress. The next two years could very well turn into a Republican civil war as the Republican establishment and the Tea Party newbies will clash over policy, strategy and personell. Total obstruction or partial cooperation? Trying to blame everything on the President or working with him wherever possible? Choosing Palin or Palinesque nominee or a Romney/Pawlenty establishment character. Republicans have a lot of choices to make and I simply don't see a lot of room for compromise. This will mean a) infighting and b) getting if not necessarily taking responsibility for their actions. The next two years could very well be the trailer for the next Republican presidency, that may very well deter enough voters to give Democrats comeback in 2012. Imagine if Republicans hadn't won the House last night? They could've kept on doing as they were in the past two years: obstructing and villifying which very well may have turned into a huge electoral disaster in 2012. Instead we're likely to get a Republican civil war.
I know that there a lot of assumptions above but I believe that they can turn out that way and that, as crazy as it sounds, the alternative, Democrats barely hanging on to power in both houses of Congress last night would have been worse for us. Redistricting will eliminate some of the Republican pickups, it may also create new opportunities. Additionally, we did get rid of a lot of people who were responsible for last nights result's in the first place, Democrats who thought it was adventageous for them to obstruct and grandstand about it: Blanche Lincoln and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin being two prime examples. A lot of the seats Republicans won last year can be won back easily in 2012. Just as easily as they were lost this year. Not all is gloom. There's hope for more and true change, not chahange as Jon Stuart so aptly put it.